作者：Lars Tvede
出版社：Wiley
1、
For chemical reasons, the brain can only feel euphoria for limited stretches of time. However, it has no natural limitations to how long it can feel depressed. Avoiding pain, anger, boredom, sorrow, and anguish is therefore important.
P419 / 2020-11-15 16:50
2、
The chaos and terror in some communities today is not happening because these places have entered the future. It’s because they haven’t. These countries live like Europeans lived several hundred years ago, where numerous different armies roamed around and plundered, raped, and killed, often as means of living.
P406 / 2020-11-15 16:14
3、
You can’t win over people with violence anymore — and trying is massively costly — but you clearly can by the inspiration, visible success, and attractiveness of your ideas, even if it may take decades.
P405 / 2020-11-15 16:11
4、
I don’t think luxury is just an unnecessary waste for the spoilt rich. Just like sports competitions, concerts, and art museums, it showcases what the most skilled and motivated people can do, when given the chance. It’s about the best craftsmen, artists, and engineers in a civilization working together to deliver the finest product that this civilization can muster.
P383 / 2020-11-14 10:49
5、
Culturally open people were far more likely to buy luxury than people with closed minds, and that was the case within all income classes.
P371 / 2020-11-13 16:43
6、
True luxury (like art) can never be designed through consumer research. It has to come from a small team or a single person with a passion, dream, and an idea. Furthermore, again like art, it may also take some time for consumer to learn to appreciate it.
P368 / 2020-11-13 16:34
7、
Increasingly people expect to get information a few seconds after they realize that they need it.
P347 / 2020-11-12 22:41
8、
One of the reasons is that our genome is increasingly mismatched to modern life. The human software that we contain in our genes evolved almost entirely during the Stone Age. It tells the body to store fat as an insurance, in case we are unable to find food, or if the ground snows over for longer than usual in the winter. Furthermore, the body seems to lose much interest in self-preservation after we stop having children even though technically we could live much longer, and that our accumulated knowledge from a lifetime is largely lost when we die. Our genome makes us prone to hysteria and panics. It doesn’t give us the intelligence we need to comprehend the technologies we have made.
P302 / 2020-11-10 11:29
9、
Nuclear fusion would produce no radioactive waste, and we have enough reserves of deuterium and tritium to keep us supplied with electric energy for several million years.
P278 / 2020-11-09 18:45
10、
However, at some point they will be solved by the many small armies of mostly ordinary people who work anonymously in the “machine rooms” of the world, so to speak.
————–
心得：
“但是，这些问题早晚会解决，有很多很多普通人，默默耕耘”
P274 / 2020-11-09 18:24
11、
The reality is that it tends to be more popular to talk about the need to get problems solved than to actually solve them.
————–
心得：
“可现实是，嘴上说要解决问题的人越来越多，真正动手的却没几个。”
P274 / 2020-11-09 18:16
12、
Within decades there will be two international power centers in global finance: Greater China and former British Empire.
P225 / 2020-11-08 18:30
13、
If income in a poor country is half that in a rich country, then the poor country has twice the risk of civil war if they have an equal growth rate. Slow growth or negative growth adds considerably to war risk.
P183 / 2020-11-07 11:38
14、
Within any country, and between nations, there seems to be a strong tendency that the less intelligent are more prone to violence.
P170 / 2020-11-07 11:09
15、
It was the New Zealand-based James R. Flynn, who discovered what is now called the “Flynn Effect”, which is a continuous, year-on-year rise of intelligence quotient scores in virtually all parts of the world… average IQ was increasing with each new generation… the parts of IQ tests that are most influenced by education, such as vocabulary, arithmetic, and general knowledge, have not actually improved… Improvements are instead in what we could call “raw” intelligence or simply mental firepower.
P98 / 2020-10-30 12:06
16、
Furthermore, if somebody comes up with evidence indcating that the fear may be exaggerated or even without any merit, it is quickly brushed off. As a part of this process they may even use so-called “contrast errors”, where people view their opponents as much inferior to what they really are. They may, for instance, consider them less dever, honest, or well-intentioned, or they may go through their work with magnifying glasses to find errors that can be used as a pretext to discount their lines of thought. Or, perhaps most common of all, they may assume that they are part of conspiracy and paid off by big companies or political parties.
P42 / 2020-10-25 22:21
17、
Attitudes are sort of simplification and data compression the brain uses for drawing simple conclusions from many impressions. Experiments show that it not only takes lots of new information to change an attitude, but also a lot of time — typically at least months. However, a panicky person — a person so struck by what happens that he has a high beartbeat, sweaty palms, and acute concentration problems — can change attitudes within minutes or even seconds. When millions of investors get caught in panic, they react much faster than normal, and this creates the free fall in prices. Resistance, when this happens, is more than difficult. It’s futile.
P42 / 2020-10-25 11:49
18、
Overconfident behavior: We overestimate our ability to make correct decisions.
Hindsight bias: We overestimate the likeliness that we would have been able to predict the outcome of past series of events.
P41 / 2020-10-25 11:33
19、
Confirmatory bias: Our conclusions are unduly biased by what we want to believe.
Cognitive dissonance: When evidence shows that our assumptions have been wrong, we try to avoid such information, or distort it, and we try to avoid action that highlights the dissonance.
Ego-defensive attitudes: We adapt our attitudes, so that they seem to confirm the decision we have made.
Assimilation error: We misinterpret information that we receive, so that it seems to confirm what we have done.
Selective exposure: We try only to expose ourselves to information that seems to confirm our behavior and attitudes
Selective perception: We misinterpret information in a way that seems to confirm our behavior and attitudes.
P41 / 2020-10-25 11:32
20、
False consensus effect: We generally overestimate the number of other people that share our attitudes.
Adaptive attitudes: We develop the same attitudes as people we associate with.
Social comparison: We use the behavior of others as a source of information about a subject that we find difficult to understand.
P40 / 2020-10-25 11:29
21、
Representativeness effect: We tend to think that trends we observe are likely to continue.
Anchoring: Our decisions are influenced by input that seems to suggest the correct answer.
P40 / 2020-10-25 11:26
22、
The easy money of deflationary booms creates asset inflation.
P34 / 2020-10-25 11:09
23、
Investing well over busines cycles is not question of whether one has invested at given times or not, but of what one has invested in during each phase. There is always a bull market. And a bear market.
P12 / 2020-10-23 13:33
24、
In any case, Baron Rothschild once said that the time to buy equities is “when there is blood in the streets — even if it’s your own,” which is very right. Equities should be bought even before the economy reaches its lowest point, and one of the early signals to do so is often a recovery in bond prices, including corporate bonds, followed, perhaps, by a period where equities stop falling in spite of deteriorating news.
P11 / 2020-10-23 13:29