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《The Hundred-Year Marathon》
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作者: Michael Pillsbury
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出版: Henry Holt and Co.
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出版时间: 2014-11-11
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the Communist Party School in Beijing uses at least three books to illustrate how the rising challenger successfully and peacefully persuaded the old hegemon to yield: Ann Orde’s The Eclipse of Great Britain, Aaron Friedberg’s The Weary Titan, and Lanxin Xiang’s Recasting the Imperial Far East.
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the Chinese leadership has learnt that if you compete with America in armaments, you will lose. You will bankrupt yourself. So, avoid it, keep your head down, and smile for forty or fifty years.”
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They warn conservatives that “the Right is almost hypersensitive to any perceived relative decline in America’s global lead in military might, but is strangely oblivious to the deleterious impact that America’s declining economic position will have on its security in general and defense capacity in particular.” As for those on the left, Atkinson and Ezell caution them, “If the United States is losing the race for global innovation advantage, members of the Left need to acknowledge that their mission of advancing social justice cannot be effectively met.”
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many in China’s government and military did not believe the book’s assertion that “there is little stomach in the United States for trying to frustrate China’s rise, encircle it with alliances and forces, or start a Sino-American cold war.”13 Their view was that this was too good to be true and was more likely an intentional effort to deceive China into becoming complacent. Yet they appreciated the authors’ assessment of a shift toward China in the military balance. They were also puzzled why the U.S. government would release evidence of American decline and what amounted to a pessimistic assessment of shi, from the U.S. perspective. They dismissed my assertions that the two authors were merely speaking for themselves.
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For many years, China has sold missile technology to rogue states that develop weapons of mass destruction, act aggressively toward their neighbors, arm terrorists, and oppress their own people.
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For many years, China has sold missile technology to rogue states that develop weapons of mass destruction, act aggressively toward their neighbors, arm terrorists, and oppress their own people. Their
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China uses this economic clout to advance its political agenda around the world. It is currently spending $2 trillion of sovereign wealth reserves to advance an anti-Western agenda through unconditional lending assistance in Africa.
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Their misinformation makes it challenging for Internet users to distinguish between factual news and government propaganda.21
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The Assassin’s Mace weapons are far less expensive than the weapons they destroy. They are developed in as much secrecy as possible. They are to be used at a decisive moment in a war, before the enemy has had time to prepare. Their effect on an adversary is confusion, shock, awe, and a feeling of being overwhelmed.
第147页 · 2023-06-20
Any good analyst hedges his bets, or at least predicts a slight chance that things could go wrong
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But Deng was no docile grandfather. In private meetings within the Politburo, he raged at aides and advisers over China’s lack of progress against the West. He believed that under Mao and his questionable “reform” practices, China had lost thirty years in its campaign to surpass the American ba.
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Deng was enthusiastic about a partnership with the Americans, but for a key reason not meant for public consumption. He had rightly deduced that by following the Soviet economic model, China had backed the wrong horse and was now paying the price.
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Kissinger asserts that this sentence indicating that Chinese troops would not go abroad reduced the U.S. concern that China would intervene in Vietnam, as it had done in Korea in 1950.17 Mao correctly recognized that this fear featured prominently in American thinking and wanted to induce complacency.
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military—the Chinese changed their assessment system to put more emphasis on the importance of economics, foreign investment, technological innovation, and the ownership of natural resources.
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One of the striking features of Chinese assessments of shi is that the term is used both as a concept of measurement that analysts must examine and also as something that can be created and manipulated by the actions of the commander or national leaders.
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“the alignment of forces” or “propensity of things to happen,”
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Americans tend to believe that relations with other countries ebb and flow between periods of competition and cooperation; Beijing’s assumption is that the U.S. government has a long-standing policy of hostility and deception toward the Chinese government.
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applying the axioms of the Warring States, China could decide to cast aside its self-imposed constraints on military spending in the final phases of a multi-decade competition—once it’s too late for America to stop them.
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Instead of trying to match America plane for plane and ship for ship, China has invested heavily in asymmetric systems designed to get the biggest bang for the buck.
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they see a multipolar world as merely a strategic waypoint en route to a new global hierarchy in which China is alone at the top.
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During the Warring States period, rising challengers overthrew many great powers. In each case, the successful rising power induced complacency in the old emperor by concealing any ambition to replace him. The worst thing a rising leader could do was to provoke confrontation with his more powerful rival before the point of maximum opportunity.
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The lesson is famous in China: “Never ask the weight of the emperor’s cauldrons.” In other words, don’t let the enemy know you’re a rival, until it is too late for him to stop you.
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The lesson is famous in China: “Never ask the weight of the emperor’s cauldrons.” In other words, don’t let the enemy know you’re a rival, until it is too late for him to stop you. On
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9. Always be vigilant to avoid being encircled or deceived by others.
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8. Establish and employ metrics for measuring your status relative to other potential challengers.
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7. Never lose sight of shi.
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7. Never lose sight of shi.
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6. Recognize that the hegemon will take extreme, even reckless action to retain its dominant position.
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5. Military might is not the critical factor for winning a long-term competition.
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4. Steal your opponent’s ideas and technology for strategic purposes.
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3. Be patient—for decades, or longer—to achieve victory.
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2. Manipulate your opponent’s advisers.
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1. Induce complacency to avoid alerting your opponent.
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China’s history is one of war and rivalries within fixed geographic boundaries — vast oceans to the east, forbidding deserts to the north, towering mountains to the west. Dynasties and rulers have come and gone and in the Chinese way of thinking they will come and go for millennia to come.
2023-05-30
U.S. intelligence officials had trouble believing the reports that China was not satisfied being the junior partner to the Soviet Union. Americans considered the idea laughable that such a supposedly backward nation might one day rival the Soviet Union, much less the United States. But there was one group of people who weren’t laughing—the leaders of the Soviet Union.
2023-05-30
U.S. intelligence officials had trouble believing the reports that China was not satisfied being the junior partner to the Soviet Union. Americans considered the idea laughable that such a supposedly backward nation might one day rival the Soviet Union, much less the United States. But there was one group of people who weren’t laughing—the leaders of the Soviet Union. They
2023-05-30
Chinese deception is oriented mainly toward inducing the enemy to act inexpediently and less toward protecting the integrity of one’s own plans.
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In our hubris, Americans love to believe that the aspiration of every other country is to be just like the United States.
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We believed that American aid to a fragile China whose leaders thought like us would help China become a democratic and peaceful power without ambitions of regional or even global dominance.
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Unfortunately, the vast majority of so-called China experts in the United States do not speak Chinese beyond a few words—enough to feign competence in the presence of those who do not speak the language fluently.
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