“The strongest orders in modern history—from Westphalia in the seventeenth century to the liberal international order in the twentieth—were not inclusive organizations working for the greater good of humanity. Rather, they were alliances built by great powers to wage security competition against their main rivals.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 07:41AM

“西欧人几百年前想象出来的西式民主理念与制度，其实是依托当时的环境的——一个比较小的、国土面积不大的、族裔比较同质化的、价值理念也相近（譬如信奉同一种宗教），社会存在一定的有机性，各种群体/阶层之间不存在大的撕裂或冲突彼此认为同属一个社会，有相互的认同感；人们可以对事实真相形成一定的共识（例如大家都看共同的印刷新闻）——尽管形成的意见和价值判断可以不同，没有全球化/国际化力量/外来力量带来的干预，等等。”
摘抄自： 俄乌危机：引入一些大历史视角（一）
February 28, 2022 at 09:16AM

“一个政治体越复杂，例如国土辽阔，族裔/种族繁多，阶层隔阂较大、信息存在壁垒和泡泡，价值观差异化，甚至出现撕裂，有很强的外来力量或外在因素发生干扰、干预（例如资本全球化），那民主的效率就有问题了，在基层可能还可以，但越到国家层面，效率就越低。人们觉得自己的利益无法被国家层级的政府、政客所代表。”
摘抄自： 俄乌危机：引入一些大历史视角（一）
February 28, 2022 at 09:16AM

“如果要拆一个国家、瓦解一个国家，那怎么个“拆”法最方便？ 当然还是利用“民族自决”的概念，不断去构建、“想象”新的民族，瓦解更大的政治体。”
摘抄自： 俄乌危机：引入一些大历史视角（一）
February 28, 2022 at 09:17AM

“中国的民族构建力非常强，那西方怎么办呢？只能从一些华夏文明腹地以外“边缘”的民族下手——譬如新疆维吾尔族。还有，就是深受西方政治影响的香港与台湾。他们也希望在这里构建某种民族意识，推动瓦解其与中华民族及政治共同体的关系，藉此削弱中国。”
摘抄自： 俄乌危机：引入一些大历史视角（一）
February 28, 2022 at 09:19AM

“那时的欧洲人认为，有色人种都是“未开化”（uncivilized）的，根本就配不上“民族自决”的概念。所以，“民族国家”、“民族自决”的原则并不适用于非白人世界。”
摘抄自： 俄乌危机：引入一些大历史视角（二）
February 28, 2022 at 09:24AM

“美国人在自己的宪法里，把各种抽象价值与权利写得非常动听，但这些权利都只属于美国白人。”
摘抄自： 俄乌危机：引入一些大历史视角（二）
February 28, 2022 at 09:25AM

“把“自决”作为分裂中国的手段，一直延续到今天。如果中国没有变得强大，那么周边列强会继续用这个原则支持鼓动将中国的边陲少数民族地，甚至汉人居住地（香港、台湾等）全部分裂出去。”
摘抄自： 俄乌危机：引入一些大历史视角（二）
February 28, 2022 at 09:27AM

“Today, the liberal order is fraying for many reasons, but the underlying cause is that the threat it was originally designed to defeat—Soviet communism—disappeared three decades ago. None of the proposed replacements to the current order have stuck because there hasn’t been a threat scary or vivid enough to compel sustained cooperation among the key players.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 09:28AM

“the major orders of the past four centuries were “orders of exclusion,” designed by dominant powers to ostracize and outcompete rivals. Order building wasn’t a restraint on geopolitical conflict; it was power politics by other means, a cost-effective way to contain adversaries short of war.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 09:31AM

“Only the threat of a nuclear-armed, communist superpower could compel so many countries to set aside their conflicting interests and long-standing rivalries and build the strongest security community and free-trade regime in history.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 09:42AM

“The liberal order, like all international orders, is a form of organized hypocrisy that contains the seeds of its own demise. To forge a cohesive community, order builders have to exclude hostile nations, outlaw uncooperative behaviors, and squelch domestic opposition to international rule-making. These inherently repressive acts eventually trigger a backlash.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 09:54AM

“By promoting free markets, open borders, democracy, supranational institutions, and the use of reason to solve problems, the order challenges traditional beliefs and institutions that have united communities for centuries: state sovereignty, nationalism, religion, race, tribe, family.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 09:58AM

“By slaying its main adversary, the liberal order unleashed all sorts of nationalist, populist, religious, and authoritarian opposition.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 09:59AM

“now economic openness has become a liability for the United States and its allies, because China is ensconced in virtually every aspect of the liberal order. Far from being put out of business by globalization, China’s authoritarian capitalist system seems almost perfectly designed to milk free markets for mercantilist gain.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 10:08AM

“Instead of reforming existing rules, rich democracies are starting to impose new ones by banding together, adopting progressive standards and practices, and threatening to exclude countries that don’t follow them.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 10:10AM

“History has shown that whichever power dominates the strategic goods and services of an era dominates that era. In the nineteenth century, the United Kingdom was able to build an empire on which the sun never set in part because it mastered iron, steam, and the telegraph faster than its competitors. In the twentieth century, the United States surged ahead of other countries by harnessing steel, chemicals, electronics, aerospace, and information technologies. Now, China hopes to dominate modern strategic sectors—including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, and telecommunications—and relegate other economies to subservient status.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 10:19AM

“The history of international order building is one of savage competition between clashing systems, not of harmonious cooperation. In the best of times, that competition took the form of a cold war, with each side jockeying for advantage and probing each other with every measure short of military force. In many cases, however, the competition eventually boiled over into a shooting war and ended with one side crushing the other.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 10:48AM

“the idea of an inclusive order in which no one power’s vision prevails is a fantasy that can exist only in the imaginations of world-government idealists and academic theorists.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 11:01AM

“standing up to China will entail significant economic costs, especially in the short term.”
摘抄自： Enemies of My Enemy
February 28, 2022 at 11:07AM

“如果中国政府进一步放松资本管制，人民币汇率不但不跌，反而会大涨，外部资本会加速涌入中国资产。其实涌进来的钱本来就是中国人或者准中国人的钱。所以在这个意义上，我不主张快速放开资本项目，因为放得太快，人民币就会涨得太猛。我主张缓缓地放，慢慢地涨，事缓则圆。”
摘抄自： 人民币成为避险货币
February 28, 2022 at 09:43PM

“东欧交易时段往往会有人民币的急剧跳升，这意味着那一地区有很多资金把人民币债券当做避风港。”
摘抄自： 人民币成为避险货币
February 28, 2022 at 09:44PM

“汇率的长期决定因素是可贸易品的竞争力，可贸易品综合价格下跌，汇率走强。所以，在这个意义上，人民币汇率的强势，不仅表达出中国产业的强势，也在反映人口方面的危机，这同1985年之后的日元汇率走势，在底层逻辑上几乎一模一样。”
摘抄自： 人民币成为避险货币
February 28, 2022 at 09:45PM

“如果2022年夏秋美国因为供应链和运输的恢复而通胀见顶回落，而美国股市从目前位置进一步下跌15%-20%，那么考虑到中期选举的背景，联储的加息缩表进程可能大大放缓。如此一来，全球美元再一次泛滥，美元指数大跌，人民币被动升值，这样的前景我们也需要做好心理准备。”
摘抄自： 人民币成为避险货币
February 28, 2022 at 09:47PM

– – – – –
晚安哦