“Most interesting are the questions related to using the Chinese currency and its clearing system (most importantly the development and increased usage of the e-CNY and the reduction in US sanction powers via its control over SWIFT).”
摘抄自: The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 10:42PM
“One must be strong internally in order to be strong externally.”
摘抄自: The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 10:55PM
“One must be strong internally in order to be strong externally.”
这也是中国所说的“练好内功”。
The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 10:56PM
“People and countries are more likely to have cooperative relationships during economic good times and to fight during economic bad times.”
在蛋糕无法继续做大,甚至无法继续以原来的速度做大的时候,就是矛盾冲突爆发的时候。国与国之间是这样,一个国家之内也是这样。所以,对于中国来说,发展是稳定的前提,尤其是对于中底层群体,如果整体的蛋糕无法保持快速做大,那分配蛋糕就要向中底层倾斜,也就是“共同富裕”。
The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 10:58PM
“At this moment we haven’t yet seen a retaliation by Russia, though we are hearing nuclear and other threats.”
摘抄自: The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 10:59PM
“At this moment we haven’t yet seen a retaliation by Russia, though we are hearing nuclear and other threats.”
这令人非常不解。
The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 11:00PM

A View of the Red Planet (in Blue) NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover snapped this view of a hill in Mars’ Jezero Crater called “Santa Cruz” on April 29, 2021, the 68th Martian day, or sol, of the mission.

“Seeing an acceleration and intensification of these economic war actions and/or a retaliation by Russia to hurt the NATO countries would signal a major increase in the risk of a major hot war.”
这是一个明显的分界点,如果跨过这条线,那冲突就明显升级,而且进入不可逆阶段。
The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 11:01PM
“The choice that opposing countries face between fighting or backing down is very hard to make because both are costly—fighting in terms of lives and money expended and backing down in terms of the loss of status, since it shows weakness, which leads to reduced support.”
摘抄自: The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 11:02PM
“Putin now appears trapped. This could be dangerous or it could neuter Russia as a power.”
摘抄自: The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 11:02PM
“Hot wars typically occur when irreconcilable existential issues cannot be resolved by peaceful means. For example existential issues a) for Putin might be having another Western/NATO-supported country on its border, b) for China might be not having control over Taiwan, c) for Iran and/or North Korea might be not having nuclear weapons to protect themselves, and d) for the US and other countries might be these countries having these things.”
摘抄自: The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 11:03PM
“The two things about hot wars that one can be most confident in are that 1) they won’t go as planned and 2) they will be worse than imagined. As a result, smart leaders typically go into them only if the other side has pushed them into a position where losing by backing down can be ruinous.”
摘抄自: The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 11:05PM
“Those who are most likely to win hot wars aren’t the most powerful. They are the ones who can endure the most pain for the longest amount of time.”
摘抄自: The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 11:06PM
“Those who are most likely to win hot wars aren’t the most powerful. They are the ones who can endure the most pain for the longest amount of time.”
以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。 最低限度经济内循环。
The Changing World Order: Focusing on External Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine-NATO Situation
March 3, 2022 at 11:07PM
“如果缺乏對事態發展的科學認識,能力是無法發揮的。”
现在可以肯定的是,香港毫无疑问缺少对疫情的科学认识。因此,整个事态还没有进入确认香港是否有能力的阶段。现在这个阶段,表现为既没有科学认识,也没有能力。
災難能否避免?
March 3, 2022 at 11:11PM
“香港疫情快速擴散主要因為三個不足:檢測規模不足、隔離措施不足、追蹤手段不足。三種不足都不是因為缺乏能力或資源,而是認為沒這個需要,甚至認為不應該這樣做。”
摘抄自: 災難能否避免?
March 3, 2022 at 11:12PM
“俄羅斯這次斷然出手入侵烏克蘭,眾所周知的地緣政治背景是北約的圍堵使其認為國家安全受到唇亡齒寒的威脅。西方政客樂於把烏克蘭今天的危機說成是俄羅斯政府的蠻橫無理,以及普京的強人政治和侵略性使然,然而,美英等西方軍隊在伊拉克、阿富汗、敘利亞等戰爭的作為說明西方政權是虛偽的。”
摘抄自: 災難能否避免?
March 3, 2022 at 11:14PM
“若烏克蘭的管治者堅持中立地位,專注於發展經濟和提升人民生活品質,它如今會是另一番光景。很可惜,現實中的烏克蘭政客卻無視自己國家的戰略局限性,被美國和北約的甜言蜜語所誤導,將烏克蘭置於兩大地緣政治角力之間,更在意識形態和民族主義範疇肆意挑釁,對國家東部佔大多數的俄羅斯民族採取歧視政策,縱容民族仇恨,最近甚至提出建立核威懾,讓烏克蘭人民承受無妄之災。”
摘抄自: 災難能否避免?
March 3, 2022 at 11:15PM
“「國小而不處卑,力少而不畏強,無禮而侮大鄰,貪愎而拙交者,可亡也。」一個小國若意識到到自己的弱小,對強國不尊重,甚至無禮、侮辱,又貪得無厭,毫無國際交往能力,這樣的國家很可能就要滅亡。”
摘抄自: 災難能否避免?
March 3, 2022 at 11:20PM
“統一和主導西太平洋的霸權換手,就有密切的關聯。”
摘抄自: 【台灣】再談統一 – 王孟源的部落格 – udn部落格
March 3, 2022 at 11:32PM
“如果美方/臺方到達瘋狂的地步,在霸權轉移未成熟、中方試圖繼續維持現狀的前提,仍然堅持要正式獨立,那麽中共即使必須在軍事、外交、經濟和貿易等方面付出非常嚴重的代價,也會立刻進行被動的武統。”
摘抄自: 【台灣】再談統一 – 王孟源的部落格 – udn部落格
March 3, 2022 at 11:32PM
“統一又分武統和文統兩種形式:武統之後,中共才可以采行新疆模式,亦即由大陸派出大多數政務官僚做直接管理,並對問題份子做監管和教育;如果是文統,就只能依據香港模式做一些修正,例如事先把引渡和愛國條款寫入基本法。”
但是,经过2019年香港黑暴之后,香港模式已经被证明是彻底的失败。
【台灣】再談統一 – 王孟源的部落格 – udn部落格
March 3, 2022 at 11:33PM
“軍事方面,要求中共的海空軍有明顯的能力將美軍的航母戰鬥群拒止於第二島鏈之外,從而完全消弭美方做任何軍事干預的可能;在外交方面,則要求中國的國際地位和關係,强大到歐洲不可能參與實質制裁的地步。”
摘抄自: 【台灣】再談統一 – 王孟源的部落格 – udn部落格
March 3, 2022 at 11:34PM
“整體的GDP成長率一旦下落到低於5%,就會少於大資本不勞而獲的尋租利得,那麽不可避免地會使階級之間的貧富差異成指數成長。換句話説,中國内部將面臨與現在的歐美類似的中產階級無法維持既有生活水準的問題(這也是爲什麽我一直把貧富不均列爲21世紀人類的頭號難題)。”
摘抄自: 【台灣】再談統一 – 王孟源的部落格 – udn部落格
March 3, 2022 at 11:39PM
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